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=
<=
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'>Allows us, for the first time, to evaluate system-wide =
where improvements have been made and where work still needs to be done.
Provides the tool to…
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Quantify “Better and Stronger”
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Determine best alternatives for higher levels of protection
<=
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Look at “What If” Scenarios
Risk Assessment Model=
![](3D"slide0149_image004.gif")
=
=
IPET Risk Assessment Model
![](3D"slide0149_image005.jpg")
![](3D"slide0166_image006.gif")
=
<=
span
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“Category # Storm” – not the complete picture
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=
•
Risk =3D probability of undesired consequences =
resulting from an action
•
System – levees, floodwalls, pumps, gates, etc, all <=
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>working together
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Hazard – surge and waves created by hurricanes
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Performance – capability of the system
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Source of potential harm
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How well it protects against the hazard
Vocabulary
‹header›
‹date/time›
Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
Fourth level
Fifth level
‹footer›
‹#›
The tool developed to see improv=
ements
and also see what else still needs to be done is the Risk Assessment
Model.
In this model, the IPET took everything they had learned about storms and =
created
a realm of storms to be modeled against the hurricane protection system. With this model, we can assess the sys=
tem
performance to make sure it will do what we want it to do, and at the same
time identify those areas of weakness or that do not perform as well, to f=
ocus
on first.
First time having the capability to do risk analysis of 350 mile hurricane=
protection
system.
- Prototype application – improved hazard definition, and
system-wide assessment.
Let’s look at the model…First..
- Allows quantifiable answer to question, “how much better” – not just
“better”.
- Provides planning level of detail forecasting and evaluation of proposed=
alternatives
- For 100-yr level of protection; structures and alignment
- For best combination of system features (structural, coastal restoration)
for greater levels of protection. (LaCPR)
- Provides the capability to go through the “what if” drill for possi=
ble
solutions.
- Allows earlier identification of most promising methods and
techniques.
- Allows evaluation of stresses on entire system to ensure actions in one =
area
don’t produce forces that impact negatively on another.
Risk – the combination of the li=
kelihood
and the consequence of a specified hazard being realized. It is a measure of harm or loss associ=
ated
with an action.
Consequence – the direct effect of an event. It is
expressed as a health effect (i.e. loss of life), or property loss.
The
risk and reliability model analyzes the performance of the system against =
the
possible hazards to understand and quantify risk so that it can be
managed.
Risk Management – the systematic application of policies,
practices, and resources to the assessment and control of risk affecting h=
uman
health and safety and the environment (built and natural).
' + ENDSHOW_MESG + '
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tes![](3D"buttons.gif")
