What does "100-Year" really mean?

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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/xml; charset="utf-8" ------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/slide0001.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" What does "100-Year" really mean?

What does “100-year”
really mean?

U.S. Army Corps of Engineeers

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What does it really mean?

<= span style=3D'mso-special-format:bullet;position:absolute;left:-7.15%'>•= The term '100-year event' is misleading.

•= It is not an event that will occur once every 100 years.

•R= ather, it is an event that has a 1% chance of occurring each year. = ;

•= Thus, the 100-year hurricane could occur more than once in a relatively short period of time…or never in a hundred years

------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/slide0003.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" What does "100-Year" really mean?

In Perspective

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How did we come up
with these numbers?

U.S. Army Corps of Engineeers

WARNING: If you have a fear= of
mathematics, you may want to stop here.

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How we got the numbers

Binomial Distribution

•Discrete distribution is u= sed to estimate the probability of obtaining exactly ‘n’ successes <= /span>out of ‘N’ independent trials where the probability of success for each individual trial is ‘p’

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Binomial Distribution Assumptions

<= span class=3DHBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.79%'>•Time divided i= nto discrete trials (usually annual)

<= span class=3DHBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.75%'>•Each trial has= only two outcomes, occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event

<= span class=3DHB1B style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.75%'>–Flood level s= urpassed or not surpassed

<= span class=3DHBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.24%'>•The probabilit= y of the event for each trial is constant

<= span class=3DHB1B style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.75%'>–Annual maximu= m flood level

<= span class=3DHBB style=3D'position:absolute;left:-4.45%'>•Trials are statistically independent&= #13;

<= span class=3DHB1B style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.75%'>–Rule of thumb

<= span class=3DHB2B style=3D'position:absolute;left:-3.13%'>•Events stronger than the 10 year (p&l= t;0.1) for annual trials

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Binomial Distribution Flood Application

<= span style=3D'font-size:114%'>•Probability of a flood level being exceeded at least once within N years

<= span style=3D'font-size:117%'>–n=3D1, 2, 3, …, N

<= span style=3D'font-size:117%'>–Cumbersome to compute = for all values of n

<= span style=3D'font-size:114%'>•Easier to compute probability of no flood = occurring (n=3D0)

• <= /span>

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Binomial Distribution Flood Application

•Since = W= 21; P =3D 1, the probability of a flood occurring can be computed from the = probability of no flood occurring

–P(Flood) + P(No Flood) =3D 1

–P(Flood) =3D 1 – P(No Flood)

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Binomial Distribution Flood Example<= /div>

•Estimate the probability of being flooded = (at least once) over a 30 year mortgage period (N=3D30) if you live in the 100 year flood plain (p=3D0.01)

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Exponential Distribution

•= The binomial distribution is the most commonly used for estimating event risk. It provides accurate results for infrequent floods (≥ 10 year return period)

•= For frequent events the exponential distribution should be used

•= λ is the average event = rate (events/time) and t is the time period of interest

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Exponential Distribution Flood Example

•Estimate the probability of being flooded = (at least once) over a 30 year mortgage period (t =3D 30 years) if you live in the 100 year flood plain (_= 5; =3D 1 event / 100 years) =3D 0.01/year)

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Geometric Distribution

•Probability that an event will occur for the first time during trial t <= /span>

•Used to estimate the average time between events (return period)

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Geometric Distribution Flood Application

•A flood level with an annual exceedance probabilit= y of ‘p’ will be equaled or exceeded at an average rate of once every 1/p years

•A 100 year flood, often used as a benchmark for catastrophic flooding, is a magnitude of flood tha= t has a 1 percent chance of being exceeded in any given = year.

•Several 100 year floods can occur within a few yea= rs, or a region may go several hundred years without <= /span>experiencing a 100 year flood. The long term average rate will be once every 100 years.

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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: application/javascript; charset="windows-1252" function LoadSld() { var sld=3DGetObj("SlideObj") if( !g_supportsPPTHTML ) { =09 sld.style.visibility=3D"visible" return } if( MakeNotesVis() ) return runAnimations =3D _InitAnimations(); =09 if( IsWin("PPTSld") ) parent.SldUpdated(GetSldId()) g_origSz=3DparseInt(SlideObj.style.fontSize) g_origH=3Dsld.style.posHeight g_origW=3Dsld.style.posWidth g_scaleHyperlinks=3D(document.all.tags("AREA").length>0) if( g_scaleHyperlinks ) InitHLinkArray() if( g_scaleInFrame||(IsWin("PPTSld") && parent.IsFullScrMode() ) ) document.body.scroll=3D"no" _RSW() if( IsWin("PPTSld") && parent.IsFullScrMode() ) FullScrInit(); =09 MakeSldVis(); ChkAutoAdv() if( runAnimations ) { if( document.all("NSPlay") ) document.all("NSPlay").autoStart =3D false; if( sld.filters && sld.filters.revealtrans ) setTimeout( "document.body.start()", sld.filters.revealtrans.duration * = 1000 ); else document.body.start(); } } function MakeSldVis()=20 { var fTrans=3Dg_showAnimation && SldHasTrans() if( fTrans )=09 { if( g_bgSound ) { idx=3Dg_bgSound.indexOf(","); pptSound.src=3Dg_bgSound.substr( 0, idx ); pptSound.loop=3D -(parseInt(g_bgSound.substr(idx+1))); } SlideObj.filters.revealtrans.Apply()=09 } SlideObj.style.visibility=3D"visible" if( fTrans ) SlideObj.filters.revealtrans.Play() } function MakeNotesVis()=20 { if( !IsNts() ) return false=20 SlideObj.style.display=3D"none" nObj =3D document.all.item("NotesObj") parent.SetHasNts(0) if( nObj ) {=20 nObj.style.display=3D"" parent.SetHasNts(1) } return 1 } function ChkAutoAdv() { if(SldHasTrans()) SlideObj.onfilterchange=3DAutoAdv else AutoAdv() } function AutoAdv() { if(!IsWin("PPTSld") || !gUseSldTimings )return var sld=3DGetCurSld() if( (sld.mAdvDelay>0) && !parent.IsFramesMode() ) setTimeout("parent.GoToNextSld()",sld.mAdvDelay) } function GetObj(id) { if(g_supportsPPTHTML) return document.all(id); else return document.getElementById(id); } function SldHasTrans() { return SlideObj.style.filter !=3D ""; } function GetSldId()=20 { var regExp =3D /file:\/\/\//i var pos =3D location.href.search(regExp) if (MHTMLPrefix !=3D "" && pos !=3D -1) sId =3D location.href.substring(pos) else { sId =3D RemoveFilePrefixFromHref(location.href); var regExp =3D /\// var fixedHref =3D sId var pos =3D -1 =09 pos =3D fixedHref.search(regExp) while (pos !=3D -1) { fixedHref =3D fixedHref.replace(regExp, "\\") pos =3D fixedHref.search(regExp) } =09 if (g_fBaseHyperlink =3D=3D true) sId =3D "file:///" + fixedHref; else sId =3D fixedHref.substring(fixedHref.lastIndexOf('\\') + 1) } =09 return sId } function HideMenu() { if( frames["PPTSld"] && PPTSld.document.all.item("ctx= tmenu") && PPTSld.ctxtmenu.style.display!=3D"none" ) { PPTSld.ctxtmenu.styl= e.display=3D'none'; return true } return false } function IsWin( name ) { return window.name =3D=3D name } function IsNts() { return IsWin("PPTNts") } function IsSldOrNts() { return( IsWin("PPTSld")||IsWin("PPTNts") ) } function SupportsPPTAnimation() { return( navigator.platform =3D=3D "Win32"= && navigator.appVersion.indexOf("Windows")>0 ) } function SupportsPPTHTML() { var appVer=3Dnavigator.appVersion, msie=3DappVer.indexOf("MSIE "), ver=3D0 if( msie >=3D 0 ) ver=3DparseFloat( appVer.substring( msie+5, appVer.indexOf(";",msie) ) ) else ver=3DparseInt(appVer) return( ver >=3D 4 && msie >=3D 0 ) } function _RSW() { if( !g_supportsPPTHTML || IsNts() || ( !g_scaleInFrame && (!IsWin("PPTSld") || !parent.IsFullScrMode()) ) ) return var padding=3D0; if( IsWin("PPTSld") && parent.IsFramesMode() ) padding=3D6 cltWidth=3Ddocument.body.clientWidth-padding cltHeight=3Ddocument.body.clientHeight-padding factor=3D(1.0*cltWidth)/g_origW if( cltHeight < g_origH*factor ) factor=3D(1.0*cltHeight)/g_origH newSize =3D g_origSz * factor if( newSize < 1 ) newSize=3D1 s=3DSlideObj.style s.fontSize=3DnewSize+"px" s.posWidth=3Dg_origW*factor s.posHeight=3Dg_origH*factor s.posLeft=3D(cltWidth-s.posWidth+padding)/2 s.posTop=3D(cltHeight-s.posHeight+padding)/2 if( g_scaleHyperlinks ) ScaleHyperlinks( factor ) } function _InitAnimations() { animRuntimeInstalled =3D ''+document.body.localTime !=3D 'undefined'; isFullScreen =3D (window.name =3D=3D "PPTSld") && !parent.IsFramesMode(); g_animUseRuntime =3D g_showAnimation && animRuntimeInstalled && !(isFullSc= reen && parent.IsSldVisited()); if( g_animUseRuntime ) { collSeq =3D document.all.tags("seq"); if( collSeq !=3D null ) { for(ii=3D0;ii numSlds ) gSldJumpIdx =3D numSlds; if ( gSldJumpIdx >=3D 0 ) { if ( gSldJumpIdx =3D=3D 0 ) gSldJumpIdx =3D 1; var jumpTo =3D parseInt(gSldJumpIdx); gSldJump =3D 0; gSldJumpIdx =3D ""; win.GoToSld( parent.GetSldList().mList[jumpTo-1].mSldHref ) } } } function _KDH() { if( event.keyCode =3D=3D 8 ) { event.returnValue =3D 0; parent.GoToPrevSld(); } }function DocumentOnClick() { if( IsNts() || parent.HideMenu() ) return; if( ( g_allowAdvOnClick && (window.name=3D=3D"PPTSld") && !parent.IsFrames= Mode() ) || (event && event.keyCode=3D=3D32) ) { =09 if( g_animUseRuntime && g_animMainSequence && g_animMainSequence.cangonex= t ) return; parent.GoToNextSld(); } } var g_supportsPPTHTML =3D SupportsPPTHTML(), g_scaleInFrame =3D 1, gId=3D""= , g_bgSound=3D"", g_scaleHyperlinks =3D false, g_allowAdvOnClick =3D 1, g_showInBrowser = =3D 0, gLoopCont =3D 0, gUseSldTimings =3D 1; var g_showAnimation =3D g_supportsPPTHTML && SupportsPPTAnimation() && ( (w= indow.name=3D=3D"PPTSld" && !parent.IsFramesMode()) || g_showInBrowser );va= r g_animManager =3D null; var g_animUseRuntime =3D false; var g_animItemsToHide, g_animInteractiveItems, g_animSlideTime; var g_animMainSequence =3D null; var ENDSHOW_MESG=3D"End of slide show, click to exit.", SCREEN_MODE=3D"Fram= es", gIsEndShow=3D0, NUM_VIS_SLDS=3D13, SCRIPT_HREF=3D"script.js", FULLSCR_= HREF=3D"fullscreen.htm"; var gCurSld =3D gPrevSld =3D 1, g_offset =3D 0, gNtsOpen =3D gHasNts =3D gO= tlTxtExp =3D 0, gHasNarration =3D 0, gOtlOpen =3D true window.gPPTHTML=3DSupportsPPTHTML() var g_fBaseHyperlink =3D false; var gMainDoc=3Dnew Array(new hrefList("slide0001.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList(= "slide0002.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0003.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("= slide0013.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0004.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("s= lide0005.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0006.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("sl= ide0007.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0008.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("sli= de0009.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0010.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slid= e0011.htm",1,-1,1),new hrefList("slide0012.htm",1,-1,1)); /********************************************* Frameset functions These functions control slide navigation and state of the frameset. **********************************************/ function RemoveFilePrefixFromHref(href) { var regExp =3D /^file:\/\/\//i; return href.replace(regExp, "") } function FullScrInit() { g_allowAdvOnClick =3D GetCurSld().mAdvOnClk document.body.style.backgroundColor=3D"black" document.oncontextmenu=3Dparent._CM; document.onkeydown =3D _KDH; document.ondragstart=3DCancel document.onselectstart=3DCancel self.focus() } function Redirect( frmId ) {=09 var str=3Ddocument.location.hash,idx=3Dstr.indexOf('#'), sId=3DGetSldId() if(idx>=3D0) str=3Dstr.substr(1); if( window.name !=3D frmId && ( sId !=3D str) ) { obj =3D GetObj("Main-File") window.location.href=3Dobj.href+"#"+sId return 1 } return 0 } var MHTMLPrefix =3D CalculateMHTMLPrefix();=20 function CalculateMHTMLPrefix() { if ( document.location.protocol =3D=3D 'mhtml:') {=20 href=3Dnew String(document.location.href)=20 Start=3Dhref.indexOf('!')+1=20 End=3Dhref.lastIndexOf('/')+1=20 if (End < Start)=20 return href.substring(0, Start)=20 else=20 return href.substring(0, End)=20 } return ''; } function GetTags(base,tag) { if(g_supportsPPTHTML) return base.all.tags(tag); else return base.getElementsByTagName(tag); } function UpdNtsPane(){ if(frames["PPTNts"]) PPTNts.location.replace( MHTMLP= refix+GetHrefObj( gCurSld ).mNtsHref ) } function UpdNavPane( sldIndex ){ if(gNavLoaded) PPTNav.UpdNav() } function UpdOtNavPane(){ if(gOtlNavLoaded) PPTOtlNav.UpdOtlNav() } function UpdOtlPane(){ if(gOtlLoaded) PPTOtl.UpdOtl() } function SetHasNts( fVal ) { if( gHasNts !=3D fVal ) { gHasNts=3DfVal UpdNavPane() } } function ToggleOtlText() { gOtlTxtExp=3D!gOtlTxtExp UpdOtlPane() } function ClearMedia() { // Clear any sounds playing before launching another browser window. Other= wise, // in fullscreen mode, you'll continue to hear the sound in the frames mod= e. if (PPTSld.pptSound) PPTSld.pptSound.loop =3D 0; } function FullScreen() {=20 if ( PPTSld.g_animUseRuntime ) PPTSld.document.body.pause(); ClearMedia(); var href =3D ( document.location.protocol =3D=3D 'mhtml:') ? FULLSCR_HREF = : FULLSCR_HREF+"#"+GetHrefObj(gCurSld).mSldHref; if (MHTMLPrefix !=3D "") href =3D RemoveFilePrefixFromHref(href) if(PPTNav.event.ctrlKey) { var w =3D (window.screen.availWidth * 1.0) / 2.0 var h =3D w * (PPTSld.g_origH * 1.0) / PPTSld.g_origW win =3D window.open( MHTMLPrefix+href,null,"toolbar=3D0,resizable=3D1,top= =3D0,left=3D0," + "width=3D"+ w + ",height=3D" + h ); if( win.document.body && PPTSld.g_animUseRuntime ) win.document.body.PPTSldFrameset=3Dwindow; } else { win =3D window.open( MHTMLPrefix+href,null,"fullscreen=3Dyes" ); if( win.document.body && PPTSld.g_animUseRuntime ) win.document.body.PPTSldFrameset=3Dwindow; } } function ToggleVNarration() { rObj=3DPPTSld.document.all("NSPlay") if( rObj && !PPTSld.g_animUseRuntime ) { if( (rObj.playState =3D=3D 1)||(rObj.playState =3D=3D 0) ) rObj.Play() else if( rObj.playState =3D=3D 2 ) rObj.Pause() else return; } else if( PPTSld.g_animUseRuntime ) { narObj =3D PPTSld.document.all("narrationID") if( narObj ) narObj.togglePause() } } function GetCurSldNum() { =20 obj=3DGetHrefObj(gCurSld) if( obj.mOrigVis =3D=3D 1 ) return obj.mSldIdx else =20 return gCurSld } function GetNumSlds() { =20 if( GetHrefObj(gCurSld).mOrigVis =3D=3D 1 ) return GetSldList().mNumVisSlds; else return GetSldList().mList.length } function GetSldNum( href ) { for(ii=3D0; ii 1 ) PopSldList(); else if( !IsFramesMode() ) { if( gLoopCont ) GoToFirst() else EndShow() } } function GoToPrevSld() { ii=3DgCurSld-1 if( ii > 0 ) { obj=3DGetHrefObj(ii) while ( obj && ( obj.mVis =3D=3D 0 ) && ( ii>0 ) ) obj=3DGetHrefObj(--ii) if( ii =3D=3D 0 ) ii=3D1 GoToSldNum(ii) } } function GoToFirst(){ GoToSld( GetHrefObj(1).mSldHref ) } function GoToLast() { ii=3DGetSldList().mList.length if( ii !=3D gCurSld ) GoToSld( GetHrefObj(ii).mSldHref ) } function GoToSldNum( num ) { if( PPTSld.event ) PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue obj =3D GetHrefObj( num ) obj.mVis=3D1 gPrevSld=3DgCurSld gCurSld =3D num; =09 if (MHTMLPrefix !=3D "") PPTSld.location.replace(MHTMLPrefix+RemoveFilePrefixFromHref(obj.mSldHref= )) else PPTSld.location.replace(obj.mSldHref) =09 if( IsFramesMode() ) { UpdNavPane(); UpdOtlPane(); UpdNtsPane() } } function GoToSld( href ) { if( PPTSld.event ) PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue GetHrefObj( GetSldNum(href) ).mVis=3D1 if (MHTMLPrefix !=3D "") PPTSld.location.replace(MHTMLPrefix+RemoveFilePrefixFromHref(href)) else PPTSld.location.replace(href) } function SldUpdated( id ) { if( id =3D=3D GetHrefObj(gCurSld).mSldHref ) return gPrevSld=3DgCurSld gCurSld=3DGetSldNum(id) if( IsFramesMode() ) { UpdNavPane(); UpdOtlPane(); UpdNtsPane() } } function PrevSldViewed(){ GoToSld( GetHrefObj(gPrevSld).mSldHref ) } function HasPrevSld() { return ( gIsEndShow || ( gCurSld !=3D 1 && GetHrefO= bj( gCurSld-1 ).mVis =3D=3D 1 )||( GetCurSldNum() > 1 ) ) } function HasNextSld() { return (GetCurSldNum() !=3D GetNumSlds()) } function CloseWindow() { if( HideMenu() ) return; =09 var event =3D PPTSld.event; if( !IsFramesMode() && event && (event.keyCode=3D=3D27 || event.keyCode=3D= =3D32 || event.type=3D=3D"click" ) ) window.close( self ); CatchNumKeys( self, event ); } function Unload() { gIsEndShow=3D0; } function SetupEndShow() { gIsEndShow=3D1; PPTSld.document.body.scroll=3D"no"; PPTSld.document.onkeypress=3DCloseWindow; PPTSld.document.onclick=3DCloseWindow; PPTSld.document.oncontextmenu=3D_CM; } function EndShow() { if( IsFramesMode() ) return if( PPTSld.event ) PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue doc=3DPPTSld.document var dir =3D doc.body.dir if( dir !=3D "rtl" ) dir =3D "ltr"; doc.open() doc.writeln('

' + ENDSHOW_MESG + '

') doc.close() } function SetSldVisited(){ GetSldList().mList[gCurSld-1].mVisited=3Dtrue } function IsSldVisited(){ return GetSldList().mList[gCurSld-1].mVisited } function hrefList( sldHref, visible, advDelay, advClk ) { this.mSldHref=3D this.mNtsHref =3D sldHref this.mOrigVis=3D this.mVis =3D visible this.mVisited=3D false this.mAdvDelay=3D advDelay this.mAdvOnClk=3D advClk } function SldList(arr,curSld,fEnd) { this.mCurSld =3D curSld; this.mList =3D new Array(); var idx =3D 1; for(ii=3D0;ii 0) { PushSldList(sldList,fEnd); gCurSld =3D 1; } else if( PPTSld.event ) PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue } function PushSldList(arr,fEnd) { var ii =3D gSldStack.length; gSldStack[ii] =3D new SldList(arr,gCurSld,fEnd); GoToSld( gSldStack[ii].mList[0].mSldHref ); } function PopSldList() { if (gSldStack[gSldStack.length-1].fEndShow) EndShow() else { gCurSld =3D gSldStack[gSldStack.length-1].mCurSld; gSldStack[gSldStack.length-1] =3D null; gSldStack.length--; var sldList =3D gSldStack[gSldStack.length-1]; GoToSld( sldList.mList[gCurSld - 1].mSldHref ); } } var custShowList=3Dnew Array(); /********************************************* Navigation button implementation There are 2 types of buttons: ImgBtn, TxtBtn implemented as function objects. They share a similiar interface so the event handlers can call SetActive, for example, on a button=20 object without needing to know exactly=20 what type of button it is. **********************************************/ //---------------------------------- function ImgBtn( oId,bId,w,action ) //---------------------------------- { var t=3Dthis t.Perform =3D _IBP t.SetActive =3D _IBSetA t.SetInactive=3D _IBSetI t.SetPressed =3D _IBSetP t.SetDisabled=3D _IBSetD t.Enabled =3D _IBSetE t.ChangeIcon =3D null t.UserAction =3D action t.ChgState =3D _IBUI t.mObjId =3D oId t.mBorderId=3D bId t.mWidth =3D w t.mIsOn =3D t.mCurState =3D 0 } function _IBSetA() { if( this.mIsOn ) { obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gHiliteClr,gShadowClr,2 ) obj.style.posTop=3D0 } } function _IBSetI() { if( this.mIsOn ) { obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,1 ) obj.style.posTop=3D0=20 } } function _IBSetP() { if( this.mIsOn ) { obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gShadowClr,gHiliteClr,2 ) obj.style.posLeft+=3D1; obj.style.posTop+=3D1 } } function _IBSetD() { =20 obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,0 ) obj.style.posTop=3D0=20 } function _IBSetE( state ) { var t=3Dthis GetObj( t.mBorderId ).style.visibility=3D"visible" if( state !=3D t.mIsOn ) { t.mIsOn=3Dstate if( state ) t.SetInactive() else t.SetDisabled() } } function _IBP() { var t=3Dthis if( t.mIsOn ) { if( t.UserAction !=3D null ) t.UserAction() if( t.ChangeIcon ) { obj=3DGetObj(t.mObjId) if( t.ChangeIcon() ) obj.style.posLeft=3Dobj.style.posLeft+(t.mCurState-4)*t.mWidth else obj.style.posLeft=3Dobj.style.posLeft+(t.mCurState-0)*t.mWidth } t.SetActive() } =20 } function _IBUI( clr1,clr2,nextState ) { var t=3Dthis SetBorder( GetObj( t.mBorderId ),clr1,clr2 ) obj=3DGetObj( t.mObjId ) obj.style.posLeft=3Dobj.style.posLeft+(t.mCurState-nextState)*t.mWidth-obj= .style.posTop t.mCurState=3DnextState return obj } //----------------------------------------- function TxtBtn( oId,oeId,action,chkState ) //----------------------------------------- { var t=3Dthis t.Perform =3D _TBP t.SetActive =3D _TBSetA t.SetInactive=3D _TBSetI t.SetPressed =3D _TBSetP t.SetDisabled=3D _TBSetD t.SetEnabled =3D _TBSetE t.GetState =3D chkState t.UserAction =3D action t.ChgState =3D _TBUI t.mObjId =3D oId t.m_elementsId=3D oeId t.mIsOn =3D 1 } function _TBSetA() { var t=3Dthis if( t.mIsOn && !t.GetState() ) t.ChgState( gHiliteClr,gShadowClr,0,0 ) } function _TBSetI() { var t=3Dthis if( t.mIsOn && !t.GetState() ) t.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,0,0 ) } function _TBSetP() { if( this.mIsOn ) this.ChgState( gShadowClr,gHiliteClr,1,1 ) } function _TBSetD() { =20 this.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,0,0 ) this.mIsOn =3D 0 } function _TBSetE() { var t=3Dthis if( !t.GetState() ) t.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,0,0 ) else t.ChgState( gShadowClr,gHiliteClr,1,1 ) t.mIsOn =3D 1 } function _TBP() { var t=3Dthis if( t.mIsOn ) {=20 if( t.UserAction !=3D null ) t.UserAction() if( !t.GetState ) return if( t.GetState() ) t.SetPressed() else t.SetActive() } =20 } function _TBUI( clr1,clr2,lOffset,tOffset ) { SetBorder( GetObj( this.mObjId ),clr1,clr2 ) Offset( GetObj( this.m_elementsId ),lOffset,tOffset ) } function Offset( obj, top, left ){ obj.style.top=3Dtop; obj.style.left=3Dle= ft } function SetBorder( obj, upperLeft, lowerRight ) { s=3Dobj.style; s.borderStyle =3D "solid" s.borderWidth =3D 1=20 s.borderLeftColor =3D s.borderTopColor =3D upperLeft s.borderBottomColor=3D s.borderRightColor =3D lowerRight } function GetBtnObj(){ return gBtnArr[window.event.srcElement.id] } function BtnOnOver(){ b=3DGetBtnObj(); if( b !=3D null ) b.SetActive() } function BtnOnDown(){ b=3DGetBtnObj(); if( b !=3D null ) b.SetPressed() } function BtnOnOut(){ b=3DGetBtnObj(); if( b !=3D null ) b.SetInactive() } function BtnOnUp() { b=3DGetBtnObj() if( b !=3D null ) b.Perform() else Upd() } function GetNtsState(){ return parent.gNtsOpen } function GetOtlState(){ return parent.gOtlOpen } function GetOtlTxtState(){ return parent.gOtlTxtExp } function NtsBtnSetFlag( fVal ) { s=3Ddocument.all.item( this.m_flagId ).style s.display=3D"none" if( fVal ) s.display=3D"" else s.display=3D"none" } function _BSetA_Border(){ b =3D gBtnArr[this.mObjId]; if( b !=3D null ) b.S= etActive() } function _BSetI_Border(){ b =3D gBtnArr[this.mObjId]; if( b !=3D null ) b.S= etInactive() } function _BSetP_Border(){ b =3D gBtnArr[this.mObjId]; if( b !=3D null ) b.S= etPressed() } function _BSetA_BorderImg() {=20 b =3D gBtnArr[this.mBorderId]=20 if( b !=3D null && this.mIsOn && !b.GetState() ) { obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gHiliteClr,gShadowClr,2 ) obj.style.posTop=3D0 } } function _BSetI_BorderImg() {=20 b =3D gBtnArr[this.mBorderId] if( b !=3D null && this.mIsOn && !b.GetState() ) { obj=3Dthis.ChgState( gFaceClr,gFaceClr,1 ) obj.style.posTop=3D0 } } var gHiliteClr=3D"THREEDHIGHLIGHT",gShadowClr=3D"THREEDSHADOW",gFaceClr=3D"= THREEDFACE" var gBtnArr =3D new Array() gBtnArr["nb_otl"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_otl","nb_otlElem",parent.ToggleOtlPan= e,GetOtlState ) gBtnArr["nb_otlElem"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_otl","nb_otlElem",parent.ToggleOt= lPane,GetOtlState ) gBtnArr["nb_nts"] =3D new ImgBtn( "nb_nts","nb_ntsBorder",10,parent.ToggleN= tsPane ) gBtnArr["nb_nts"].SetActive =3D _BSetA_BorderImg; gBtnArr["nb_nts"].SetInactive =3D _BSetI_BorderImg; gBtnArr["nb_ntsBorder"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_ntsBorder","nb_ntsElem",parent.= ToggleNtsPane,GetNtsState ) gBtnArr["nb_ntsElem"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_ntsBorder","nb_ntsElem",parent.To= ggleNtsPane,GetNtsState ) gBtnArr["nb_prevBorder"] =3D gBtnArr["nb_prev"]=3D new ImgBtn( "nb_prev","n= b_prevBorder",30,parent.GoToPrevSld ) gBtnArr["nb_nextBorder"] =3D gBtnArr["nb_next"]=3D new ImgBtn( "nb_next","n= b_nextBorder",30,parent.GoToNextSld ) gBtnArr["nb_sldshw"]=3D new ImgBtn( "nb_sldshw","nb_sldshwBorder",18,parent= .FullScreen ) gBtnArr["nb_sldshwBorder"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_sldshw","nb_sldshwBorder",pa= rent.FullScreen,null ) gBtnArr["nb_sldshwBorder"].SetActive =3D _BSetA_Border; gBtnArr["nb_sldshwBorder"].SetInactive =3D _BSetI_Border; gBtnArr["nb_sldshwText"] =3D new TxtBtn( "nb_sldshw","nb_sldshwText",parent= .FullScreen,null ) gBtnArr["nb_sldshwText"].SetActive =3D _BSetA_Border; gBtnArr["nb_sldshwText"].SetInactive =3D _BSetI_Border; gBtnArr["nb_voice"] =3D gBtnArr["nb_voiceBorder"] =3D new ImgBtn( "nb_voice= ","nb_voiceBorder",18,parent.ToggleVNarration ) gBtnArr["nb_otlTxtBorder"] =3D gBtnArr["nb_otlTxt"]=3D new ImgBtn( "nb_otlT= xt","nb_otlTxtBorder",23,parent.ToggleOtlText ) gBtnArr["nb_ntsBorder"].m_flagId=3D "nb_nts" gBtnArr["nb_ntsBorder"].SetFlag =3D NtsBtnSetFlag gBtnArr["nb_otlTxt"].ChangeIcon=3D GetOtlTxtState /********************************************* Context menu implementation _CM() is the function that's hooked up to the oncontextmenu event. Once we're asked to show the menu, we first build it by creating DIVs on-the-fly. Then we position it=20 within the screen area so it doesn't get clipped. Creating the DIVs using createElement() means we don't have to write out any extra HTML into the slide HTML files. **********************************************/ var sNext=3D"Next",sPrev=3D"Previous",sEnd=3D"End Show",sFont=3D"Arial",sAr= row=3D"Arrow",sFreeform=3D"Freeform",sRect=3D"Rectangle",sOval=3D"Oval" function ShowMenu() { BuildMenu(); var doc=3DPPTSld.document.body,x=3DPPTSld.event.clientX+doc.scrollLeft,y= =3DPPTSld.event.clientY+doc.scrollTop m =3D PPTSld.document.all.item("ctxtmenu") m.style.pixelLeft=3Dx if( (x+m.scrollWidth > doc.clientWidth)&&(x-m.scrollWidth > 0) ) m.style.pixelLeft=3Dx-m.scrollWidth m.style.pixelTop=3Dy if( (y+m.scrollHeight > doc.clientHeight)&&(y-m.scrollHeight > 0) ) m.style.pixelTop=3Dy-m.scrollHeight m.style.display=3D"" } function _CM() { if( !parent.IsFullScrMode() ) return; if(!PPTSld.event.ctrlKey) { ShowMenu() return false } else HideMenu() } function BuildMenu() { if( PPTSld.document.all.item("ctxtmenu") ) return var mObj=3DCreateItem( PPTSld.document.body ) mObj.id=3D"ctxtmenu" mObj.style.visibility=3D"hidden" var s=3DmObj.style s.position=3D"absolute" s.cursor=3D"default" s.width=3D"120px" SetCMBorder(mObj,"menu","black") var iObj=3DCreateItem( mObj ) SetCMBorder( iObj, "threedhighlight","threedshadow" ) iObj.style.padding=3D2 CreateMenuItem( iObj,sNext,M_GoNextSld,M_True ) CreateMenuItem( iObj,sPrev,M_GoPrevSld,M_HasPrevSld ) =09 CreateSeparator( iObj ) CreateMenuItem( iObj,sEnd,M_End,M_True ) mObj.style.visibility=3D"visible" } function Cancel() { window.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue; window.event.returnVa= lue=3Dfalse } function Highlight() { ChangeClr("activecaption","threedhighlight") } function Deselect() { ChangeClr("threedface","menutext") } function Perform() { e=3DPPTSld.event.srcElement if( e.type=3D=3D"menuitem" && e.IsActive() ) e.Action() else PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue } function ChangeClr( bg,clr ) { e=3DPPTSld.event.srcElement if( e.type=3D=3D"menuitem" && e.IsActive() ) { e.style.backgroundColor=3Dbg e.style.color=3Dclr } } function M_HasPrevSld() { return( parent.HasPrevSld() ) } function M_GoNextSld() { if( gIsEndShow ) M_End(); else GoToNextSld() } function M_GoPrevSld() { if( gIsEndShow ) { gIsEndShow=3D0; history.back();= PPTSld.event.cancelBubble=3Dtrue; } else GoToPrevSld() } function M_True() { return true } function M_End() { window.close( self ) } function CreateMenuItem( node,text,action,eval ) { var e=3DCreateItem( node ) e.type=3D"menuitem" e.Action=3Daction e.IsActive=3Deval e.innerHTML=3Dtext if( !e.IsActive() ) e.style.color=3D"threedshadow" e.onclick=3DPerform e.onmouseover=3DHighlight e.onmouseout=3DDeselect s=3De.style; s.fontFamily=3DsFont s.fontSize=3D"9pt" s.paddingLeft=3D2 } function CreateSeparator( node ) { var sObj=3DCreateItem( node ) SetCMBorder(sObj,"menu","menu") var s=3DsObj.style s.borderTopColor=3D"threedshadow" s.borderBottomColor=3D"threedhighlight" s.height=3D1 s.fontSize=3D"0px" } function CreateItem( node ) { var elem=3DPPTSld.document.createElement("DIV") node.insertBefore( elem ) return elem } function SetCMBorder( o,ltClr,rbClr ) { var s=3Do.style s.backgroundColor=3D"menu" s.borderStyle=3D"solid" s.borderWidth=3D1 s.borderColor=3DltClr+" "+rbClr+" "+rbClr+" "+ltClr } ------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/fullscreen.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" ------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/buttons.gif Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Type: image/gif R0lGODlhWAESAPf4AAAAAIAAAACAAICAAAAAgIAAgACAgICAgAQEBISEBASEBISEhAQEhMTExAQE /KTM9Pz8/ERERPz8BAT8/KSkpGRkhMTcxCRkxAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMDAwP8AAAD/AP//AAAA//8A/wD//////yH5BAEAAPgALAAAAABYARIA QAj/APEJHEiwoMGDCBMqXMiwocOHECNKnEixosWLGCEiQKCRo8YDIEHig2DxAD4LKD1avDDhgUuV GUOGbHBR5QGYFBG4fHAB58EKECJEwCfUYAWPFGAygLCRKQIIUKM6WAohKUGgCikcFWh1INWoYKVS 7SrQ41GbIhGYLAuVQVOoC+IyXUuUAkG1HE3KFDhAwkgJc5/qDZmxsOHDiBMrXsy4sePDGyP7lChT 5MULmDPnlDw5YmW6FTNrfgi0aNGEZPEtbfo2bNTUpYeeRph69dPWrqvCNFuBIGG1A59CYPAVQtwF cw0OxWdTIOiBCQAjaAB17fOFII8voGmRc+eOkilm/z9OvTtnjN4hYk1YoT3H2rnBOphPAB9skgq3 2lcaX/5YnJVt9BloAar12UEIRGCZdQghMABI1Tn32IQUVthYexhmqGGGMBHAgIfEhSiiiATAtOGJ GnYI4ogsEldicAYOGNJGZaml3Y0L3NTZUBz1xlB0PUoUI0jlVWRSVN89xBKSGB1YU1TMoRfVBEle hR9HQs1GEHxQ3RZZbveZthxt/LEmXHyp5XWABSCpaRJwbM13gAACPHVccgJFgF+NEhqUAEkQSCfc ddhVhh5dVTaEAEsTUNlkZUWKN9BNGDE6QU8OrSdbllzpxyVTTrU21Uj3scfhp7nNpyoDaTIEJ3P9 If8J2kbLNYegg9JRBwGhFvbq66+ZUiDssMQWK2yHxiZLrInKNotss8l+B5yBrr5p2UIJvortANoC 6+234IbLla/elRtZjeamh5CC3Sb0YLvixivvYkDFGlZqBNh7r4n6goVvv6/ZlCicN+kL71ALTnpQ dCIZp7CihkLA3UQmoWRBogyxtBPGCTnZncVR1rSTo5nuydC/Eo8kUH+lOoTyyvjoCuZu+PjYIKLD rZybtrM1d10C0QXKEVz48GrQkEeWdFJKlbb0UmEeV0SzyC6RvNB646LWIVjUNeC1zAFb+RDKXksM 9r531bwmpQW9+hQDDsx5pqwDRWBXcFES2hc+gEn/wJGdEEWdE6LoWcoxQweaTNmkhydkKaYMYY2Q p1unbLl/pPKbn3v7EZRvrKvqlja2ONvrtoIw9tn2g32/tQBlhtYkU+MNikZ7QYlPDPuMldpOmuJX nVo5VF3HjI+q89mteX5IDd/fVFClma5kiE4f2XUJhlz09gj2NbTDRifkmu7zXjR++RVJ/lPznuvr QH2iD6S+UewP9Dnon6d2NLwN8n90BB6hC68cFMCHoe+ACASP9c4DowUyEF0OPFcDI0ij/VXPaAKC UfhS95AKGoQ7IBRICI1HwhGaUIQoLGEKT6jCFrLwhSuMoQtlCMMZ2rCGOKShDm+4wxzy8Ic+DGIP B4cIRCKGMCAAOy== ------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/frame.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252" What does "100-Year" really mean? ------=_NextPart_01C7AF7A.C2D701D0 Content-Location: file:///C:/F488208E/Whatdoes100-yearreallymean_files/outline.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1252"

1	What does “100-year” really mean?
2	What does it rea= lly mean? The term '100-year event' is misleading. It is not an event that will occur once every 100 years. Rather, it is an event that has a 1% chance of occurring each year.<= /li> Thus, the 100-year hurricane could occur more than once in a relativ= ely short period of time…or never in a hundred years
3	In Perspective
4	How did we come = up with these numbers?
5	How we got the n= umbers Discrete distribution is used to estimate the probability of obtaini= ng exactly ‘n’ successes out of ‘N’ independent trials where the probability of success for each individual trial is ‘p’
6	Binomial Distrib= ution Assumptions Time divided into discrete trials (usually annual) Each trial has only two outcomes, occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event Flood level surpassed or not surpassed The probability of the event for each trial is constant Annual maximum flood level Trials are statistically independent Rule of thumb Events stronger than the 10 year (p<0.1) for annual trials
7	Binomial Distrib= ution Flood Application Probability of a flood level being exceeded at least once within N y= ears n=3D1, 2, 3, …, N Cumbersome to compute for all values of n Easier to compute probability of no flood occurring (n=3D0)
8	Binomial Distrib= ution Flood Application Since ∑ P =3D 1, the probability of a flood occurring can be computed from the probability of no flood occurring P(Flood) + P(No Flood) =3D 1 P(Flood) =3D 1 – P(No Flood)
9	Binomial Distrib= ution Flood Example Estimate the probability of being flooded (at least once) over a 30 = year mortgage period (N=3D30) if you live in the 100 year flood plain (p= =3D0.01)
10	Exponential Distribution The binomial distribution is the most commonly used for estimating e= vent risk. It provides accurate results for infrequent floods (≥ 10 year return period) For frequent events the exponential distribution should be used λ is the average event rate (events/time) and t is the time per= iod of interest
11	Exponential Distribution Flood Example Estimate the probability of being flooded (at least once) over a 30 = year mortgage period (t =3D 30 years) if you live in the 100 year flood p= lain (λ =3D 1 event / 100 years) =3D 0.01/year)
12	Geometric Distr= ibution Probability that an event will occur for the first time during trial= t
13	Geometric Distr= ibution Flood Application A flood level with an annual exceedance probability of ‘p’ will be equaled or exceeded at an average rate of once every 1/p years A 100 year flood, often used as a benchmark for catastrophic floodin= g, is a magnitude of flood that has a 1 percent chance of being exceede= d in any given year. Several 100 year floods can occur within a few years, or a region ma= y go several hundred years without experiencing a 100 year flood. The long term average rate will = be once every 100 years.

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